Foredune growth and storm surge protection potential at the Eiderstedt Peninsula, Germany

In the context of climate change and associated sea level rise, coastal dunes can provide an essential contribution to coastal protection against wave attack and flooding. Since dunes are highly dynamic systems, their potential safety levels are related to their long-term development, varying in time and space, however pertinent research that ties those aspects together are generally scarce. The objective of this study is to analyze the long-term development of a young coastal foredune at the Eiderstedt peninsula, Germany and assess its coastal protection potential. This research presents (i) a novel semi-automated Dune Toe Tracking (DTT) method to systematically extract dune toes from cross-shore elevation profiles; (ii) established tools to derive the extraction of characteristic dune parameters and (iii) a newly defined Critical Storm Surge Level (CSSL) to relate spatio-temporal dune growth with coastal storm surge protection. Based on geospatial survey data, initial dune formation was identified in the 1980s. By 2015, the foredune had developed over a 6.5 km coastal stretch with a mean annual growth of 7.4m(3)/m. During the course of dune evolution, the seaward dune toe shifted seaward by an average of 2.3m/yr, while simultaneously increasing in height by an average of 1.1 cm/yr. Overall, the foredune formation established a new line of defense in front of an existing dike/dune line that provides spatially varying protection against a mean CSSL of 3.4m + NHN and can serve as an additional buffer against wave attack during severe storm events.