Model Projections of Increased Severity of Heat Waves in Eastern Europe

Extreme heat is investigated in a series of high-resolution time-slice global simulations comparing the current and late-21st century climates. An increase in climate-relative extreme heat is found in the region surrounding the Black Sea. Similarities between the synoptic-scale flows in current and future heat events combined with a decrease in future summer precipitation suggests that the increased future severity stems from strengthened land-atmosphere feedbacks driven primarily by the changes in precipitation. The resulting intensification of heat events beyond the mean warming driven by climate change could generate significant future heat hazards in vulnerable regions. Given the continental cool bias in the present-day simulations, the resulting estimates of future extreme heat are likely to be conservative.