Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies

Pacific Island countries are vulnerable to climate variability and change. Developing strategies for adaptation and planning processes in the Pacific requires new knowledge and updated information on climate science. In this paper, we review key climatic processes and drivers that operate in the Pacific, how they may change in the future and what the impact of these changes might be. In particular, our emphasis is on the two major atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the Hadley and Walker circulations. We also examine climatic features such as the South Pacific Convergence Zone and Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as factors that modulate natural climate variability on different timescales. It is anticipated that our review of the main climate processes and drivers that operate in the Pacific, as well as how these processes and drivers are likely to change in the future under anthropogenic global warming, can help relevant national agencies (such as Meteorological Services and National Disaster Management Offices) clearly communicate new information to sector-specific stakeholders and the wider community through awareness raising.