H 2 ARDD score as a feasible predictor of heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation: a validation study

It was reported that the H 2 ARDD score (organic heart diseases = 2 points, anemia = 1 point, renal dysfunction = 1 point, diabetes = 1 point, and diuretic use = 1point; range 0 to 6 points) may help identify patients with AF at high risk for HF events. However, this score has not been externally validated. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of H 2 ARDD score in predicting HF events in patients with AF. We used a prospective database of patients with AF, and Cox-proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of HF events. The outcome of interest was defined as HF events including new-onset HF and death from HF. Of 562 AF patients, 518 (mean 69.7 ± 9.7 years-old, 64.9% men) met study criteria, and 84 (16.2%) developed HF events during a mean follow–up of 54 ± 42 months. In multivariable analyses, H 2 ARDD score was shown as a significant predictor for HF events [hazard ratio (HR): 1.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36–1.79], independent of age (per 10 years, HR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.03–1.78). In the Kaplan–Meier analyses stratified by H 2 ARDD score categories (0–2, 3–4, 5–6), the patients with higher H 2 ARDD scores had significantly worse HF event-free survival (log-rank P < 0.0001). The area under the ROC curve was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65–0.77, P < 0.0001). The sensitivity and specificity at a cut-off score of ≥ 3 were 60% and 71%, respectively. In conclusion, the H 2 ARDD score may be feasible for HF risk stratification in patients with AF.