Identification of high-risk features in mucinous cystic neoplasms of the pancreas

Background: Mucinous cystic neoplasms of the pancreas are uncommon tumors that have the potential of becoming cancer. There is no consensus regarding the high-risk features of these tumors. Our study aimed to identify the preoperative demographic, clinical, or radiologic factors that can predict the presence of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma in mucinous cystic neoplasms of the pancreas.Methods: We identified 157 patients who underwent resection and fulfilled the pathologic criteria for mucinous cystic neoplasms of the pancreas in a prospectively maintained database spanning 3 decades (1990-2020). Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma in mucinous cystic neoplasms of the pancreas.Results: The rate of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma was 11%. Tumor size >= 4 cm (P < .001), mural nodularity (P = .04), and a serum CA 19-9 level >37 U/mL (P < .001) were associated with highgrade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma. In the multivariable analysis, tumor size >= 4 cm (odds ratio 16.9, 95% confidence interval 2.04-140, P = .009) and a CA 19-9 level >37 U/mL (odds ratio 5.68, 95% confidence interval 1.52-21.3, P =.010) were predictors of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma. There were no tumors with high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma in patients with tumor size <4 cm in the absence of an elevated CA 19-9 or mural nodularity.Conclusion: Tumors with a size >= 4 cm and/or a high CA 19-9 level should be considered for prompt surgical resection. Conversely, tumors <4 cm with no other high-risk features have a negligible risk for high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma and may benefit from nonoperative surveillance. Mural nodularity is an additional suspicious feature. These findings may contribute to future guidelines. (c) 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.