U.S. cobalt scenario analysis to mid-century: Import dependency or marketable commodity?

•The two prospective most demanding cobalt markets are automotive (batteries) and aviation (superalloys).•Vigorous recycling efforts can substantially lower cobalt peak demand.•Peaking cobalt demand happens when the adoption of electric vehicles is not matched by opportune recycling schemes (Adaptation challenges scenario).•The replacement of cobalt in batteries and superalloys paired with efficient recycling could potentially generate an abundance of secondary cobalt.