Ten-Tear Follow-Up of Earthquake Survivors: Long-Term Study on the Course of PTSD Following a Natural Disaster

Objective: Few earthquake survivor studies extend follow-up beyond 2 years, leaving the long-term course of earthquake10-year survey re-assessed the 1999 izmit,Turkey, earthquake Survivors.Methods: Izmit earthquake survivors (N =198), previously assessed for PTSD/partial PTSD at 1-3 months and 18-20 months post-earthquake, were evaluated 10 years post-event from January 2009 through December 2010. A PTSD self-test (Turkish translation) used DSM-IV criteria to characterize full PTSD, "stringent partial PTSD; "lenient partial PTSD; or non-PTSD based on symptom type/amount.Results: Full PTSD prevalence decreased from 37% at 1-3 months post-earthquake to 15% at 18-20 months (P<.001), remaining relatively stable (12%) at 10 years (P= 38). Stringent and lenient partial PTSD decreased between 1-3 months and 18-20 months (from 9% to 3% and from 24% to 12%, respectively; P<.001), remaining stable at 10 years (5% and 9%, respectively; P= .43 and P=.89). PTSD was more prevalent at 1-3 months among those who had a close acquaintance harmed, had been evacuated for long periods (>1 week), or had more children; this was not observed at 10 years (P= .007-.017). Avoidance symptoms 1-3 months post-earthquake were the best predictor for full PTSD at 10 years (P<.001). Delayed-onset PTSD was observed in only 2% of participants.Conclusions: Full and partial PTSD decreased over the first 2 years post-trauma, but remained stable at 10 years, suggesting PTSD symptoms at around 2 years remain stable at 10 years. course, but avoidance level did. Delayed-onset PTSD was relatively rare.