Implementation effect of China’s green finance pilot policy based on synthetic control method: a green innovation perspective

In order to develop green finance and realize the coordinated development of the environment and economy, China established green finance reform and innovation pilot zones in 2017. Green innovation has problems such as low financing utilization rate and lack of market competitiveness. The green finance pilot policies (GFPP) based on government management provide solutions to these problems. It is of great significance to measure and provide feedback on the implementation effect of GFPP in China for policy-making and green development. This article focuses on the influence of the construction of GFPP by using the five pilot zones as the study area and constructs the green innovation level indicator. Based on the synthetic control method, it chooses provinces that do not carry out the pilot policy as a control group. After that, assign weights to the control region to fit a synthetic control group with resembling characteristics to simulate the five pilot provinces without implementing the policy. Then, compare it with its current policy effect and highlight the policy implementation effect on green innovation. The placebo test and robustness test were conducted to prove the reliability of the conclusions. The results show that since the implementation of GFPP, the level of green innovation in the five pilot cities has shown an overall rising trend. Furthermore, we found that the balance of credit and investment in science and technology has a negative moderating effect on the implementation of GFPP, while the per capita GDP has a significant positive moderating effect. Graphical Abstract