Adaption to Tianjin, China, Based on a Retrospective Pattern Study on the Petrochemical Industry Development and the Correlated Process of SO2 Abatement in Yokkaichi, Japan

Yokkaichi is one of the four major Japanese cities facing air pollution after World War II, owing to modern urban industrialization in the 20th century. Tianjin City, in China, also showed similar industrial patterns in the petrochemical industry. For decades, the petrochemical industry development has been deteriorating the environment with its by-product, sulfur dioxide (SO2). In this paper, we summarized the characteristics of air pollution in Yokkaichi through a retrospective approach by comparing common features of Yokkaichi and Tianjin. We believe that Yokkaichi is at Stage 4, after the pollution stage, whereas Tianjin is currently in Stage 3. We believe that the efficacy of regional environmental policies in Yokkaichi related to SO2 pollution can help predict the pollution pattern in Tianjin. We used an extended stochastic regression on a population, affluence, and technology model as a reference to demonstrate the feasibility of Yokkaichi's pattern and the comparison between Yokkaichi and Tianjin. Fossil fuels, especially crude oil, may continuously be exploited as the main energy source in the next few decades. Thus, experiences of SO2 air pollution in Yokkaichi and Tianjin's could be of universal value. As it has been 50 years since the final judgment of the Yokkaichi Asthma and Yokkaichi Air pollution joint lawsuit, we attempted to reflect on Yokkaichi's history to strengthen efforts to achieve future sustainable development goals.