A Modeling Approach for Assessing Ecological Risks of Neonicotinoid Insecticides from Emission to Nontarget Organisms: A Case Study of Cotton Plant.

The use of neonicotinoid insecticides in agriculture has posed threats to ecological systems, and there is a need to assess the ecological risks of neonicotinoids from emission to nontarget organisms. We introduced a modeling approach to assess the ecological risks of neonicotinoids using honeybee and earthworm as model organisms, and the simulation was flexible under different environmental conditions. Using the cotton plant as an example, the simulation results demonstrated that under current recommended application rates, the use of common neonicotinoid insecticides posed no threat to earthworms, with the simulated risk quotients (RQs) much lower than 1. However, the simulation for some neonicotinoid insecticides (e.g., acetamiprid) indicated that using these insecticides on cotton plants could threaten honeybees, with simulated RQs higher than 1. The variability analysis showed that in high-latitude regions, the unacceptable risk to honeybees posed by insecticide application can be further elevated due to cold, wet weather that results in relatively high insecticide levels in pollen and nectar. The model evaluation showed large overlaps of simulated risk intervals between the proposed and existing (BeeREX) models. Because the proposed and existing models have different simulation mechanisms, we recommend that these two models be used together to complement each other in future studies. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:928-938. © 2023 SETAC.