The impact of climate change on drought and its adaptation strategies: findings from general circulation models and households in Tien Giang Province, Vietnam

Drought is one of the most frequent and widespread natural hazards in Tien Giang province of Vietnam, which is aggravating under the influence of climate change. As agriculture is the primary economy of the province, it is crucial to understand the influence of climate change on drought severity and how the local farmers perceive and adapt to climate change. Therefore, to examine the impacts of climate change on drought in the Tien Giang province in the Mekong Delta, the present study used three General Circulation Models (GCMs)—ACCESS 1.3, CNRM-CM5, and MRI-CGCM3 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In addition, the study evaluated household-level adaptation strategies based on structured questionnaire-based household survey data and focus group discussion. This study finds that the drought will be getting more severe in the future in the province based on using three GCMs and two climate change scenarios. The estimated results of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) show that there would be many potential extreme drought years between 2020 and 2050. The results from the questionnaire survey depicted that the household perception of drought is moderate in the Mekong Delta. The current adaptation measures are sufficient to adapt to moderate drought and can be improved to adapt to more potential extreme drought conditions in the future. This study provides important insights for decision-makers to manage future drought situations in the Mekong region.