A moving target: impacts of lowering viral load suppression cutpoints on progress towards HIV epidemic control goals

Joseph G. Rosen,Steven J. Reynolds,Ronald M. Galiwango,Godfrey Kigozi,Thomas C. Quinn,Oliver Ratmann,Anthony Ndyanabo,Lisa J. Nelson,Gertrude Nakigozi,Margaret Nalugemwa,Katherine B. Rucinski,Caitlin E. Kennedy,Larry W. Chang,Joseph Kagaayi,David Serwadda,M. Kate Grabowski

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences（2023）

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Abstract

Redefining viral load suppression (VLS) using lower cutpoints could impact progress towards the United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 targets. We assessed impacts of lowering the VLS cutpoint on achieving the 'third 95' in the Rakai Community Cohort Study. Population VLS would fall from 86% to 84% and 76%, respectively, after lowering VLS cutpoints from <1000 to <200 and <50 copies/ml. The fraction of viremic persons increased by 17% after lowering the VLS cutpoint from <1000 to <200 copies/ml.

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