Metachronous gastric neoplasm beyond 5 years after endoscopic resection for early gastric cancer

Background and Aims The natural course of early gastric cancer (EGC) following endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) remains unclear. This study aimed to clarify the long-term clinical outcomes and risk factors of metachronous gastric neoplasm (MGN) 5 years after ESD for EGC. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent ESD for EGC from July 2005 to October 2015 in Seoul National University Hospital. Long-term clinical outcomes and risk factors of MGN after 5 years post-ESD were evaluated. Results Among the 2059 patients who underwent ESD for EGC, 1102 were followed up for > 5 years. MGN developed in 132 patients 5 years after ESD. During the median follow-up period of 85 months, the cumulative incidences of MGN and metachronous gastric cancer were 11.7, 16.9, and 27.0 and 7.6, 10.8, and 18.7% after 5, 7, and 10 years, respectively. In multivariable analysis, male sex (odds ratio 1.770; P = 0.042), severe intestinal metaplasia (odds ratio 1.255; P = 0.000), tumor-positive lateral margin (odds ratio 2.711; P = 0.008), < 5 mm lateral safety margin (odds ratio 1.568; P = 0.050), and synchronous adenoma (odds ratio 2.612; P = 0.001) were positive predictive factors, and successful eradication of Helicobacter pylori (odds ratio 0.514; P = 0.024) was a negative predictive factor for MGN after 5 years post-ESD. Conclusion The cumulative MGN incidence was high even 5 years post-ESD for EGC. Meticulous long-term endoscopic follow-up is mandatory, especially in male patients with underlying intestinal metaplasia, tumor-positive lateral margins, lateral safety margins of < 5 mm, and synchronous adenomas.