Quantifying the Severity of Metopic Craniosynostosis Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Background:Quantifying the severity of head shape deformity and establishing a threshold for operative intervention remains challenging in patients with metopic craniosynostosis (MCS). This study combines three-dimensional skull shape analysis with an unsupervised machine-learning algorithm to generate a quantitative shape severity score (cranial morphology deviation) and provide an operative threshold score. Methods:Head computed tomography scans from subjects with MCS and normal controls (5 to 15 months of age) were used for objective three-dimensional shape analysis using ShapeWorks software and in a survey for craniofacial surgeons to rate head-shape deformity and report whether they would offer surgical correction based on head shape alone. An unsupervised machine-learning algorithm was developed to quantify the degree of shape abnormality of MCS skulls compared to controls. Results:One hundred twenty-four computed tomography scans were used to develop the model; 50 (24% MCS, 76% controls) were rated by 36 craniofacial surgeons, with an average of 20.8 ratings per skull. The interrater reliability was high (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.988). The algorithm performed accurately and correlates closely with the surgeons assigned severity ratings (Spearman correlation coefficient, r = 0.817). The median cranial morphology deviation for affected skulls was 155.0 (interquartile range, 136.4 to 194.6; maximum, 231.3). Skulls with ratings of 150.2 or higher were very likely to be offered surgery by the experts in this study. Conclusions:This study describes a novel metric to quantify the head shape deformity associated with MCS and contextualizes the results using clinical assessments of head shapes by craniofacial experts. This metric may be useful in supporting clinical decision making around operative intervention and in describing outcomes and comparing patient population across centers.