In the wind: Invasive species travel along predictable atmospheric pathways.

Invasive species such as insects, pathogens and weeds reaching new environments by travelling with the wind, represents unquantified and difficult-to-manage biosecurity threats to human, animal, and plant health in managed and natural ecosystems. Despite the importance of these invasion events, their complexity is reflected by the lack of tools to predict them. Here, we provide the first known evidence showing that the long-distance aerial dispersal of invasive insects and wildfire smoke, a potential carrier of invasive species, is driven by atmospheric pathways known as Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS). An aerobiological modelling system combining LCS modelling with species biology and atmospheric survival has the potential to transform the understanding and prediction of atmospheric invasions. The proposed modelling system run in forecast or hindcast modes can inform high-risk invasion events and invasion source locations, making it possible to locate them early, improving the chances of eradication success. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.