The role of absolute humidity in influenza transmission in Beijing, China: risk assessment and attributable fraction identification

To assess the impact of absolute humidity on influenza transmission in Beijing from 2014 to 2019, we estimated the influenza transmissibility via the instantaneous reproduction number (R-t), and evaluated its nonlinear exposure-response association and delayed effects with absolute humidity by using the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Attributable fraction (AF) of R-t due to absolute humidity was calculated. The result showed a significant M-shaped relationship between R-t and absolute humidity. Compared with the effect of high absolute humidity, the low absolute humidity effect was more immediate with the most significant effect observed at lag 6 days. AFs were relatively high for the group aged 15-24 years, and was the lowest for the group aged 0-4 years with low absolute humidity. Therefore, we concluded that the component attributed to the low absolute humidity effect is greater. Young and middle-aged people are more sensitive to low absolute humidity than children and elderly.