Monitoring Airspace Complexity and Determining Contributing Factors

The national airspace has evolved over many years to accommodate increased traffic demand while simultaneously maintaining air travel as one of the safest forms of transportation. One of the reasons for this success is the ability of the air traffic control system and the operators to adapt and accommodate to situations that routinely disrupt normal operations. These situations may include: adverse weather, delays, early arrivals, equipment outages, and other factors that are outside the operators' ability to control. These factors can lead to states where automation is unable to properly handle these issues, and therefore air traffic controllers and pilots have to intervene — ultimately increasing communication between operators resulting in higher workload. As controller workload increases to handle sub-optimal operating conditions, complexity increases. This is because, under these conditions humans are required to make tactical decisions in response to external factors. This results in a departure from the original strategic plan where operations would be more efficiently managed. Human operators manage airspace complexity under rigid regulations but in a constantly changing environment. The airspace is divided into sectors and the number of aircraft assigned to each controller is limited for safe handling. Some prior studies devised airspace complexity metrics in commercial aviation and related these metrics to controller workload. The upper bounds on the system load are pre-determined. Such bounds on complexity make for a safe system, but the system cannot scale and adapt to autonomous, dense, and heterogeneous traffic — including the many types of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) envisioned to be added to the operations. We hypothesize that, as traffic density and heterogeneity grow, and other key metrics change, there will be phase transitions at which the way traffic should be managed changes significantly. We offer a method for in-time detection of contributing factors that lead to phase transitions, characterized by increased complexity. To the best of our knowledge, there is no tool similar to ours that identifies such contributing factors or precursor patterns.