Impact of Population Aging on Carbon Emissions in China: An Empirical Study Based on a Kaya Model

As the world’s largest developing country, China is facing the serious challenge of reducing carbon emissions. The objective of this study is to investigate how China’s aging population affects carbon emissions from the production and consumption sides based on an improved Kaya model. The advantage of the Kaya model is that it links economic development to carbon dioxide generated by human activities, which makes it possible to effectively analyze carbon emissions in relation to the structure of energy consumption and human activities. Based on different energy consumption structures and technological innovation levels, a threshold effect model is constructed. The results show that: (1) There is an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between population aging and carbon emissions in China. (2) Energy consumption structure and technological innovation thresholds can be derived for the impact of population aging on carbon emissions, with thresholds of 3.275 and 8.904 identified, respectively. (3) Population aging can reduce carbon emissions when the energy consumption structure does not exceed the threshold value. (4) There is no significant intervention effect of technological innovation on the relationship between population aging and carbon emissions. Based on the research results, some countermeasures and suggestions to reduce carbon emissions are proposed.