Air temperature spikes increase bacteria presence in drinking water wells downstream of hog lagoons

>44 million United States residents depend on private drinking water wells that are federally unregulated. Maintaining a clean groundwater supply for populations without access to public water systems is essential to supporting public health and falls to state regulators and private well owners. Yet, monitoring practices do not reflect the fact that groundwater pollution risk varies seasonally and with proximity to nearby surface-contaminated sites. Examination of nearly 50,000 well water samples across North Carolina, ranked second nationally in domestic well dependence and swine production, from 2013 to 2018 reveals a uniform sampling schedule but a variable risk of bacterial contamination within each calendar year. We document a threshold of 32.2 °C (90 °F) where total coliform bacteria and Escherichia coli (E. coli) detection in private well water spikes near swine lagoons but is absent from “upstream” wells and otherwise unexplained by a variety of other known contamination sites. Closing the gap between perceived and actual risks of drinking water contamination has potential to improve public health. State regulations and federal guidelines should consider coordinating domestic well sampling with seasonally and spatially fluctuating risks of groundwater contamination. Findings from this study are generalizable, having implications for other parts of the world with water sources that have the potential to get contaminated by nearby surface sources of human and animal waste, such as manure applications and leaching septic systems.