Invasion of rocky shores by a mytilid mussel reveals an abundant-centre distribution coupled with moderate increases in densities at its absolute range limits

Semimytilus patagonicus is an invasive mussel on the coast of southern Africa and has extended its range in recent years. We asked whether its distribution and abundance are consistent with the abundant-centre hypothesis (ACH). Marginal populations were located by monitoring 33 rocky shore sites in South Africa and southern Namibia in 2021. This revealed no changes to its distributional limits since 2020. At nine of these sites, population demography was measured to allow a comparison of their densities and size structure. Four were central populations on the west coast of South Africa (including the site where the species was first detected in 2009). Four were marginal populations in South Africa: two towards the cold range edge in the north and two towards the warm range edge to the south. The ninth population was in southern Namibia, representing a recent invasion event first detected in 2014. Across the species' South African range, the distribution of its abundance was generally consistent with the ACH, with the greatest abundance at its range centre and a gradual decrease towards the range edges. However, the ultimate marginal population at both its cold and warm range edges showed moderate upticks in abundance compared to the penultimate marginal populations. Additionally, marginal populations in South Africa typically included a greater proportion of large individuals. Recruitment intensity was greater in warm range edge populations than cold range edge populations. The size structure of the population in Namibia resembled those of central populations in South Africa. Moderate increases in densities at the absolute range limits suggest that the species is currently undergoing spread into regions associated with moderately optimal environmental conditions (ultimate range edge sites) after encountering regions associated with suboptimal environmental conditions (penultimate range edge sites).