Validating trends in olive ridley sea turtle nesting track counts in Guatemala in light of a national hatchery protection strategy

The olive ridley sea turtle Lepidochelys olivacea is the most abundant marine turtle species in Guatemala, representing > 99% of all nests. Along with other marine turtles, they are important both culturally and ecologically. Conservation efforts rely almost exclusively on an informal system whereby local residents can harvest olive ridley sea turtle nests on the condition they donate 20% of each nest to a hatchery, where the eggs are incubated and hatchlings later released. This system was initiated in the 197os and, until recently, no effort has been made to determine its sustainability. In a 2020 publication based on tracks on a single beach in Guatemala and 15 years of egg incubation data from Guatemalan hatcheries, it was concluded that the population had increased. Several weaknesses were detected in this research. To verify the validity of the conclusion, we analysed data from 22 years (2 years are missing) and EL beaches using several statistical models. We used an intraseasonal model of nesting phenology to fill in missing data for monitored periods during a nesting season, and a new method of spatial and temporal aggregation of nesting seasons. Based on our findings, we reject the hypothesis that olive ridley sea turtle nesting activity is increasing. The total nesting activity for these 12 beaches was stable over the 22-year period. Because of inconsistent hatchery management and the financial dependency of local communities on the sale of turtle eggs, the number of incubated eggs cannot be used as an indicator of the population trend of olive ridley sea turtles in Guatemala.