Predictive Validity of Annual Written Exams and WrittenTests for Assistant\'s Promotion of Mashhad University of Medical Science

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The residency or specialization course in post-graduate medical education in Iran includes 3-5 years depends on different specialization. To be promoted to a higher year, assistants must earn the minimum score specified for their interdepartmental exams and annual national examinations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of these exams in academic promotion of assistants and 90.7% of passed assistants and 16% of failed assistants were correctly classified. METHODS: This cross-sectional analytical study was done in medical schools of Mashhad University of Medical Sciences in 1397-1398. The study population included all assistants who had started their residency course in 1394. 120 participants were randomly selected. Data collection tools included checklist, system for recording the educational activities of assistants (logbook), the results of OSCE and MCQ (multiple choice questionnaire) exams. Participants' different exams results were evaluated longitudinally over 4 years. Data analysis was done by SPSS version 11.5 and logistic regression model was used. FINDINGS: The applied model (prediction of academic promotion of assistants based on predictive variables including professional ethics, log books, new evaluation methods, OSCE and MCQ exams) was a complete and a significantly reliable model (p≤ 0.01, df=6 ، Chi-square=46.43). This model was able to predict 11-22% of the variance of the educational promotion of assistants. The results of the analysis showed that among the predictor variables, only interdepartmental exams and yearly MCQ exams had a significant relationship with the passed or failed status of assistants. CONCLUSION: Adequate education, employment of experienced faculty members and design and implement structured exams with acceptable validity and reliability will be an effective step in improving the quality of exams and useful evaluation of clinical and practical skills of assistants.