Australian state influenza notifications and school holiday closures in 2019 [version 3; peer review: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Background: The impact of school holidays on influenza rates has been sparsely documented in Australia. In 2019, the early winter influenza season coincided with mid-year school breaks, enabling us the unusual opportunity to examine how influenza incidence changed during school holiday closure dates. Methods: The weekly influenza data from five Australian state and one territory health departments for the period of week 19 (mid-May) to week 39 (early October) 2019 were compared to each state’s public-school holiday closure dates. We used segmented regression to model the weekly counts and a negative binomial distribution to account for overdispersion due to autocorrelation. The models’ goodness-of-fit was assessed by plots of observed versus expected counts, plots of residuals versus predicted values, and Pearson’s Chi-square test. The main exposure was the July two-week school holiday period, using a lag of one week. The effect is estimated as a percent change in incidence level, and in slope. Results: School holidays were associated with significant declines in influenza incidence in three states and one territory by between 41% and 65%. Two states did not show evidence of declines although one of those states had already passed its peak by the time of the school holidays. The models showed acceptable goodness-of-fit. The first decline during school holidays is seen in the school aged (5-19 years) population, with the declines in the adult and infant populations being smaller and following a week later. Conclusions: Given the significant and rapid reductions in incidence, these results have important public health implications. Closure or extension of holiday periods could be an emergency option for state governments.