The regulation path of coal consumption based on the total reduction index—a case study in Shandong Province, China

The reduction of the total amount of coal, a priority energy to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, has become the focus of domestic and foreign scholars. Taking coal consumption in Shandong Province as the research object, this paper builds a methodology system that uses aggregate reduction indicators to force coal consumption control path research based on the method of scenario combination + system dynamics (SD) predictive analysis. The results show that the key factors restricting coal consumption based on path analysis and SD sensitivity analysis are overlapped. Based on this, 21 scenarios based on different combinations of the aforementioned key elements are constructed. According to SD scenario simulation and TOPSIS quantitative analysis, the GM-IM-EH-PM scenario development mode easily accomplishes the reduction task and is the optimal scenario development mode suitable for the future development of Shandong Province. Meanwhile, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the appropriate development ranges of gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, the proportion of the secondary industry, energy consumption intensity of secondary industry, and the proportion of industrial pollution control investment in GDP in Shandong Province are recommended to be 5.5%–5.6%, 31%–32%, 0.58–0.60, 1.54–1.56, respectively. The research conclusions can provide a useful reference for the government to formulate coal reduction plans.