Suspended sediment response to Nordic bioeconomy and climate change scenarios in a first-order agricultural catchment

•Stakeholder-based future bioeconomic pathways applied for a catchment in S-E Norway.•Projected land management has stronger effect on sediment loads than climate change.•Land-use specific model calibration improves accuracy of sediment load estimates.•Environmentally friendly pathways reduce sediment loads with high confidence.•Self-sufficiency in a world with trade barriers increases environmental pressure.