Risk transmission evaluation for parallel construction of warships based on IFCM and the cloud model

To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling, spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multi-project parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, which integrates an intuitionistic cloud model with a fuzzy cognitive map. By virtue of expectancy Ex, entropy En, and hyper entropy He, the risk fuzziness and randomness of the knowledge of experts are organically combined to develop a method for converting bi-linguistic variable decision-making information into the quantitative information of the intuitionistic normal cloud (INC) model. Subsequently, the threshold function and weighted summation operation in the traditional fuzzy cognitive map is converted into the INC ordered weighted averaging operator to create the risk transmission model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map (IFCM) and the algorithm for solving it. Subsequently, the risk influence sequencing method based on INC and the risk rating method based on nearness are proposed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation in order to realize the mutual conversion of the qualitative and quantitative information in the risk evaluation results. Example analysis is presented to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the methods.