Exploring the influence of multidimensional variables on access to electricity in rural areas of the Global South

Electricity plays a fundamental role in sustainable development by facilitating the provision of basic services and improving the quality of life for poor urban and rural populations. The dominant approach to rural electrification research in the Global South has been to focus on economic and social indicators, resulting in a limited understanding of rural electrification. This research diversifies the current literature by including technical and environmental criteria in the analysis of electricity access in rural areas. This paper aims to understand the criteria that have a significant impact on access to electricity in rural areas across the Global South, specifically in Latin America and the Caribbean. This paper examines the influence of multidimensional variables (e.g. social, economic, environmental and technical) on access to electricity in rural areas. This study encompasses two sets of data: the first from a group of countries of the Global South and the second from the Latin American and Caribbean region, using mostly countries with low and middle human development index. To understand the behavior of these multivariable relationships, this paper uses a linear regression methodology and penalizes regression (i.e., LASSO and Ridge). For the countries of the Global South, the model shows a negative correlation between access to electricity in rural areas and population growth rates. For the Latin American and Caribbean countries the model indicates a negative correlation between access to electricity in rural areas and electricity consumption per capita. These results possibly indicate that countries of the Global South that have high population growth rates have challenging paths towards universalizing electricity access, and raise the question if Latin American and Caribbean countries have prioritized their access to electricity agendas in non-rural areas. This paper confirms that population growth rates and electricity consumption per capita are criteria that have a strong impact in access to electricity rates in rural areas of the Global South, and Latin America and the Caribbean, respectively.