Modeling the integrated effects of landuse and climate change on the hydrologic response of Gorganroud watershed in Iran

Landuse and climate change are the two main dynamics significantly affecting watershed hydrology. Adequate knowledge about how these changes will alter the hydrologic regime provides valuable information for future water resources planning and management. The current study attempts to analyze the joint consequences of these dynamics on the future hydrological response of the Gorganroud watershed in northern Iran. For landuse, the integrated Markov Chain analysis and Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MC-MLPNN) algorithm were used to obtain landuse for 2030 and 2050. For climate, we developed future scenarios based on the downscaled data from MPI-ESM-MR for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate watershed hydrology. We found that (1) from 1986 to 2050, agriculture and rangeland are likely to expand by 18.6% and 10.7% of the total watershed area, respectively, at the expense of forest covers. (2) Temperature and precipitation are expected to increase by 1.3 °C and 2.5 °C and by 31.7% and 27.1% for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) during 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, respectively, compared to the baseline of 1976–1995. (3) We found that the integrated landuse and climate change will likely increase annual evapotranspiration during 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 by 113.9% and 11.4%, lateral flow by 14.6% and 7%, baseflow by 166.7% and 77.2%, surface runoff by 54.2% and 41%, water yield by 50.5% and 35.9%, and streamflow by 48.6% and 32.1% for RCP8.5 compared to the baseline of 1976–1995.