An Agent-Based Forced Displacement Simulation: A Case Study of the Tigray Crisis.

Agent-based models (ABM) simulate individual, micro-level decision making to predict macro-scale emergent behaviour patterns. In this paper, we use ABM for forced displacement to predict the distribution of refugees fleeing from northern Ethiopia to Sudan. Since Ethiopia has more than 950,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) and is home to 96,000 Eritrean refugees in four camps situated in the Tigray region, we model refugees, IDPs and Eritrean refugees. It is the first time we attempt such integration, but we believe it is important because IDPs and Eritrean refugees could become refugees fleeing to Sudan. To provide more accurate predictions, we review and revise the key assumptions in the Flee simulation code that underpin the model, and draw on new information from data collection activities. Our initial simulation predicts more than 75% of the movements of forced migrants correctly in absolute terms with the average relative error of 0.45. Finally, we aim to forecast movement patterns, destination preferences among displaced populations and emerging trends for destinations in Sudan.