Economic risk assessment of ammonium nitrate explosions at the Busan Port by determining the building damage using a 3D explosion simulation.

Explosion-related disasters are large and difficult to predict; therefore, the magnitude of potential risks must be identified ahead of time. This paper presents a new method for evaluating economic risk based on building damage that can be carried out in advance. The study was conducted using scenario-based hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, and risk assessment. Using the GIS (Geographic Information System) technique, spatial information of the damage target range was constructed, and the hazard analysis of the explosion accident was analyzed in connection with a three-dimensional explosion simulation. Vulnerability analysis based on impact was performed by reflecting building spatial information (location, material, and height), and economic risks caused by explosions in appropriate scenarios were confirmed by applying a new methodology that reflects the total area and building cost of 4708 building objects with an explosion radius of 3 km. The results revealed that the estimated damage costs of 44,616,934,076 won (∼3.60000 US dollars) and 584,230,849,444 won (∼476 million US dollars), respectively, provided the basis for policy decision-making for accident prevention. Using this study, the risk of explosion can be predicted in advance, and effective support for explosive storage buildings in terms of engineering, policy, and management is possible to minimize damage.