Predicting response to immune checkpoint blockade in NSCLC with tumour-only RNA-seq

Background Targeted RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) from FFPE specimens is used clinically in cancer for its ability to estimate gene expression and to detect fusions. Using a cohort of NSCLC patients, we sought to determine whether targeted RNA-seq could be used to measure tumour mutational burden (TMB) and the expression of immune-cell-restricted genes from FFPE specimens and whether these could predict response to immune checkpoint blockade. Methods Using The Cancer Genome Atlas LUAD dataset, we developed a method for determining TMB from tumour-only RNA-seq and showed a correlation with DNA sequencing derived TMB calculated from tumour/normal sample pairs (Spearman correlation = 0.79, 95% CI [0.73, 0.83]. We applied this method to targeted sequencing data from our patient cohort and validated these results against TMB estimates obtained using an orthogonal assay (Spearman correlation = 0.49, 95% CI [0.24, 0.68]). Results We observed that the RNA measure of TMB was significantly higher in responders to immune blockade treatment ( P = 0.028) and that it was predictive of response (AUC = 0.640 with 95% CI [0.493, 0.786]). By contrast, the expression of immune-cell-restricted genes was uncorrelated with patient outcome. Conclusion TMB calculated from targeted RNA sequencing has a similar diagnostic ability to TMB generated from targeted DNA sequencing.