[Cost-effectiveness prediction of AIDS interventions among men who have sex with men in Ningbo].

Objective: To provide information reference for resource allocation and decision-making in related fields, the cost-effectiveness of HIV input among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ningbo. Different intervention coverages were compared. Methods: Taking MSM as the target population, data were collected and modeled by Optima HIV for the corresponding HIV health output and the budget under different intervention coverages. Results: According to the estimated size of the MSM population, which was 19 584 in Ningbo in 2020, if the coverage of 2020 baseline intervention is maintained in the next ten years, the number of HIV cases, new HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths among this population will show an upward trend. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2030, 7.9% of new infections and 1.7% of deaths can be avoided and the relevant funding investment comed to 2.4 time the baseline if the intervention coverage rate expanded to 3.0 times the 2020 baseline. After the coverage rate of intervention expanded to 3 times the baseline, it continued to grow, the health effect did not increase. Conclusions: At present, expanding the baseline coverage of HIV-related intervention projects among MSM in Ningbo and increasing capital investment will still reverse HIV-related death and reduce new infections. Moreover, there is a saturation point of the intervention effect. Researchers and policymakers must explore more effective interventions/combinations to obtain more significant health outcomes.