Profiles of Operational and Research Forecasting of Smoke and Air Quality Around the World

Biomass burning has shaped many of the ecosystems of the planet and for millennia humans have used it as a tool to manage the environment. When widespread fires occur, the health and daily lives of millions of people can be affected by the smoke leading to a range of health consequences such as respiratory issues, cardiovascular issues, and mortality. It is critical to include smoke and its consequences in atmospheric modeling systems to meet needs such as informing and protecting the public during smoke episodes. This chapter profiles many of the global and regional smoke prediction systems available. It is not an exhaustive list, but rather a profile of many of the systems to give examples of the creativity and complexity needed to simulate the phenomenon of smoke. The global smoke prediction systems are advanced, and many are self-organizing into a powerful ensemble. Regional and national systems are being developed independently for example in Europe (11 systems), North America (7 systems), and Australia (3 systems). Finally, the World Meteorological Organization is bringing together global and regional systems to form an ensemble to support countries with smoke issues and who lack resources. For each system we discuss how fire activity information is obtained, how fire emissions are calculated, and how atmospheric transport and chemical transformation of the smoke plume is treated.