Revisiting classical SIR modelling in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

Infectious Disease Modelling(2023)

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摘要
•The magnitude of parameter estimation and prediction errors from data misclassification in SIR compartments was determined.•Recovered, quarantined or active cases may produce the best parameter estimates and predictions when used in a SIQR model.•Under robust testing, tracing and case isolation practices, active cases should be classified as isolated cases.
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关键词
Basic disease reproduction number,Communicable disease control,Coronavirus,COVID-19,Disease transmission,Epidemics,Epidemiology,Influenza data,Mathematical models,Montana,SIR models
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