AI, the International Balance of Power, and National Security Strategy

Abstract Military applications of artificial intelligence (AI) will impact how states exert power in global politics—and how much power they have. In light of the increasing investment in potentially transformative AI technologies by militaries around the world, how will states respond? For scholars and practitioners to answer this question, it is necessary to understand how AI is likely to affect, first, the national power of individual states and, second, features of the international system. This chapter sheds light on both these issues by applying foundational concepts from the field of international relations to identify the theoretical pathways by which the global diffusion of AI may change the opportunities and vulnerabilities for how states exert influence in international politics. The chapter considers in turn how AI can affect both military and non-military dimensions of national power, and how it can affect international systemic features including the stability of the balance of power, international institutional order, and international norms. It concludes with a discussion of what current trends in state efforts related to AI suggest about the future of national security strategy and identify avenues for related research.