Prebiopsy bpMRI and hematological parameter-based risk scoring model for predicting outcomes in biopsy-naive men with PSA 4–20 ng/mL

Excessive prostate biopsy is a common problem for clinicians. Although some hematological and bi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (bpMRI) parameters might help increase the rate of positive prostate biopsies, there is a lack of studies on whether their combination can further improve clinical detection efficiency. We retrospectively enrolled 394 patients with PSA levels of 4–20 ng/mL who underwent prebiopsy bpMRI during 2010–2021. Based on bpMRI and hematological indicators, six models and a nomogram were constructed to predict the outcomes of biopsy. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated a risk scoring model based on the nomogram. Age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) density (PSAD), systemic immune-inflammation index, cystatin C level, and the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) v2.1 score were significant predictors of prostate cancer (PCa) on multivariable logistic regression analyses ( P < 0.05) and the five parameters were used to construct the XYFY nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.916. Based on the nomogram, a risk scoring model (XYFY risk model) was constructed and then we divided the patients into low-(XYFY score: < 95), medium-(XYFY score: 95–150), and, high-risk (XYFY score: > 150) groups. The predictive values for diagnosis of PCa and clinically-significant PCa among the three risk groups were 3.0%(6/201), 41.8%(51/122), 91.5%(65/71); 0.5%(1/201), 19.7%(24/122), 60.6%(43/71), respectively. In conclusion, in this study, we used hematological and bpMRI parameters to establish and internally validate a XYFY risk scoring model for predicting the biopsy outcomes for patients with PSA levels of 4–20 ng/mL and this risk model would support clinical decision-making and reduce excessive biopsies.