Long-term evolution of the climate change impacts of solid household waste management in Lappeenranta, Finland

•Climate change impact of household waste management in Lappeenranta was calculated.•Waste management impact was investigated in 2009, 2019, and 2029.•Mixed residual waste to combustion, biowaste to digestion, and others to recycling.•The 2029 scenario was significantly affected by replacing fuel in heat production.•The role of recycled plastic demand is highlighted.