The suitability for potato production in the north single cropping region in China: an integrated evaluation based on yield variability

China is strengthening potato production and cultivation. Developing a reasonable potato planting layout under climate change is critical for making decisions to sustainably improve potato yield. Here we evaluated potato planting suitability from 1981 to 2019 in the north single cropping region based on high-stable index ( HSI ), which is an integrated index by considering yield level and its variability simultaneously. We considered three yield levels, i.e., radiation-temperature yield potential ( Y p ), climatic yield potential ( Y cp ), and climatic-soil yield potential ( Y csp ), simulated by the validated Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, and then explored the dominating climatic and soil driving factors under each yield level. Results showed that the optimal area of Y p -based suitability was mainly located in Qinghai and northern parts of Gansu, while an opposite pattern was exhibited for Y cp -based and Y csp -based suitability. The proportion of optimal area decreased gradually and the proportion of near-suitable area increased gradually with the limiting factors increasing from radiation-temperature, radiation-temperature-water, to radiation-temperature-water-soil. Average solar radiation during potato-growing season was the dominant factor for the yield-based suitability based on the HSI of Y p , and precipitation during potato-growing season was the dominant factor for the suitability based on HSI of both Y cp and Y csp . The effects of soil water properties relative to soil bulk density on potato planting suitability were higher under the Y csp level. Our findings can provide a theoretical basis for optimizing potato planting division and mitigating potential negative effects of climate change on potato production in China.