A framework for assessing the vulnerability of rubber plantations to the impacts of climate change with special reference to Kerala, India

The impacts of climate change are more frequent due to global warming, which will negatively affect the production of natural rubber globally. There is a substantial lack of research on assessing the vulnerability of rubber plantations to extreme weather events in rubber-growing countries around the world. The traditional rubber-growing regions of Kerala state in India have been experiencing impacts of climate change like floods, landslides, droughts, and cyclones due to extreme weather events since 2016, which adversely affected the rubber plantations and latex production. Therefore, appropriate measures must be taken to prevent the frequent impacts of climate change on rubber plantations in the state that produce most of the rubber in the country (67%). It is vital to develop a climate change vulnerability map of rubber-growing regions to ensure the sustainability of rubber plantations. Climate change impacts on rubber plantations lead to permanent damages and substantial economic losses. A detailed review of climate change incidents affecting the state is presented, such as flooding, landslides, droughts, and cyclones, and the need to develop climate change vulnerability maps of rubber plantations. Developing a composite climate change vulnerability model based on multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) will help characterize rubber-growing regions based on climate change impacts and develop appropriate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts on rubber plantations. Thus, the proposed model could be used as a geographic information system (GIS)-based scientific framework to assess the vulnerability of rubber plantations to climate change impacts for rubber-producing countries worldwide.