First paleoseismic data from the Balkan Range

The normal faults along the Balkan range front integrate great tectonic relief, prominent basin-and-range morphology, historic seismic quiescence, and ongoing dilatation rate varying near zero. The official standards prioritize the instrumental seismicity in a random model of earthquake occurrence, and the region is assessed at low seismic hazard levels. The need of geologic data on earthquake occurrence motivated us to excavate the first paleoseismological trench in the Balkan Range. We trenched the Zlatitsa normal fault, which occupies the westernmost position within a zone of localized strain along the Central Balkan Range. The trench exposure revealed two surface-rupturing earthquakes generated at a long-term slip rate lower than 0.04 mm/yr, probably about 0.02 mm/yr for the past 42 thousand years. A stratigraphic hiatus between the earthquake records, coincident with the Last Glacial Maximum, results in large uncertainties in the estimated inter-event time, yielding 13.2-33.4 kyr (95 % confidence interval). The new data suggest that the strain is released by regionally distributed faulting. The Zlatitsa fault may form spatial clusters with the neighboring faults, analogous to the two M6.8-7.1 earthquake pairs in 1904 and 1928, south the studied location. The time elapsed since the most recent earthquake on the Zlatitsa fault is 1-15 % from the duration of the previous seismic cycle. The geodetic dilatation rate in the fault vicinity most likely exceeds several times the paleoseismic dilatation rate. However, the geodetic rate eastward from the fault is nearly identical to the paleoseismic rate obtained in the trench. Assuming exponentially decreasing fault reloading, the Zlatitsa fault may still undergo rapid stress restoration, whereas the time elapsed since the most recent earthquakes on faults to the east may be longer than the corresponding relaxation time.