Estimating the causal effect of forestry programs on forest recovery in a REDD+ priority area in Michoacán, Mexico

We evaluated the causal effect of the forestry programs implemented from 2007 to 2018 on the forest recovery in the municipality of Zitácuaro in central Mexico, part of the Cutzamala region, a REDD+ priority implementation area. We produced detailed land use/land cover (LULC) maps to measure forest loss and recovery in the study period at the municipal level. To evaluate the effect of active forest recovery we used a quasi-experimental design to compare forest cover change between agrarian nuclei with and without forestry programs. Although deforestation was the most dominant forest cover change process in 2007–2018 in Zitácuaro, forest recovery, mostly in the form of forest densification, occurred in areas of comparable size. However, the causal effect of forestry programs on forest cover and density increase at the agrarian nuclei level was negligible. The passive forest regrowth resulting from agricultural abandonment or postfire regeneration could have been more determinant of forest recovery in the study period. Detailed qualitative local data will be needed to understand factors and reasons for passive recovery to support this process in the future.