Further compelling evidence for safety-in-numbers: It is more than meets the eye

In the extant road safety literature, estimating safety-in-numbers is dominated by conventional cross-sectional methods in which active mode (pedestrian or cyclist) volume together with motorised traffic volume are pre-sent in regression models explaining active mode safety directly. There is "direct" evidence for safety-in-numbers when the coefficient associated with active mode volume is negative (safety improves as volume increases) or when it is smaller than one (safety decreases at a lower rate compared to the rate of increase in active mode volume). In this article we extend the concept of safety-in-numbers in the traffic safety field, introducing "in-direct" safety-in-numbers, which constitutes a new form of evidence for this phenomenon. We provide empirical evidence to support this, discussing that using an approach based on heterogeneity in mean modelling-a form of random parameters (slopes) models-it is possible to reveal "indirect" safety-in-numbers effects. Therefore, such models can reveal further compelling evidence for safety-in-numbers. Accurate knowledge of safety-in-numbers effects (both direct and indirect) and their underlying mechanisms can help provide robust motives for pro-moting active travel and will have valuable implications for the design of road safety interventions.