Improved Vegetation Ecological Quality of the Three-North Shelterbelt Project Region of China during 2000-2020 as Evidenced from Multiple Remotely Sensed Indicators

Evaluation of the long-term effect of ecosystem recovery projects is critical for future ecological management and sustainable development. The Three-North Shelterbelt (TNS) is a large-scale afforestation project in a crucial region of China. Numerous researchers have evaluated the vegetation ecological quality (VEQ) of the TNS using a single vegetation indicator. However, vegetation ecosystems are complex and need to be evaluated through various indicators. We constructed the vegetation ecological quality index (VEQI) by downscaling net primary productivity, leaf area index, fractional vegetation cover, land surface temperature, vegetation moisture, and water use efficiency of vegetation. The spatiotemporal characteristics and main contributing factors of VEQ in the TNS from 2000 to 2020 were investigated using SEN+Mann-Kendall, Hurst exponent, geographical detector, and residual trend analysis testing. The results suggest that VEQ in the TNS showed an improving trend over the 21-year study period. The areas with significant improvements were concentrated in the central and eastern parts of the TNS. Significant deterioration occurred only sporadically in various urban areas. Characteristics of future unsustainable VEQ trends could be detected across the TNS. Precipitation, vegetation type, soil type, elevation, and solar radiation exhibited the greatest impact on VEQ throughout the TNS. Human activities (e.g., afforestation and government investments) were the dominant factors and had a relative contribution of 65.24% to vegetation area change. Our results provide clues for assessing environmental recovery and sustainable development in other regions.