Cerrado native vegetation is a refuge for birds under the current climate change trajectory

Climate change is already seen as one of the biggest threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. Not many studies direct attention to its effects on whole communities of threatened hotspots. In this work, we combine climate niche modelling (ENM) with a future climate scenario of greenhouse gases emissions to study the future changes in alpha and beta diversity of birds of the Brazilian Cerrado biome, a hot spot of biodiversity with high velocity of climate change and agricultural expansion. We expected Southern Cerrado (highly modified) to present most negative changes. In general, we found heterogeneous results for changes in species richness, spatial and temporal taxonomic and functional beta diversity, and mean ecological distinctiveness. We analysed 1301 birds, 1115 Least Concern, 83 Near Threatened, 63 Vulnerable, 33 Endangered, five Critically Endangered and two Extinct in the Wild. Contrary to a previous study on Cerrado mammals, species richness is expected to increase in Northern Cerrado, where homogenization of communities (decreasing spatial turnover) is also expected to occur especially through local invasions. We show that biotic homogenization increasing (similarity among communities) will occur in two biological groups but through different subprocesses: local extinctions for mammals and local invasions for birds. Distinct conservation management actions should be directed depending on the outcomes of analyses of alpha and spatial and temporal beta diversity, for example controlling species invasions in Northern Cerrado. We also show species-level priorities for Cerrado birds. Conservation studies should continue evaluating Cerrado in Brazil even under covid pandemic, as environmental situation in the country is not good and incentives for scientific studies are almost nonexistent. We also consider that Northern Cerrado could be seen as a potential refuge for other organismal groups (bats, butterflies, frogs, etc). Therefore, ambitious conservation actions by decision-makers are now crucial.