What factors affect species richness and distribution dynamics within two Afromontane protected areas?

Context. Biodiversity monitoring programs provide information on the status and trends in wildlife populations. These trends are unknown for most mammals within African montane forests, which harbour many endemic and threatened species. Camera traps are useful for assessing mammal populations, because they allow for the estimation of species richness, occupancy, and activity patterns. Aims. We sought to explore the richness and distribution of small- to large-sized mammals by using occupancy models while accounting for imperfect detection in Volcanoes and Mgahinga Gorilla National Parks, in Rwanda and Uganda. Methods. We used camera-trap data collected from 2014 to 2017 by the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) network and multi-season occupancy models with multispecies data to assess the dynamics of species richness and distribution in the Virunga Massif and the influence of site covariates on species detection probability, occupancy, colonisation and extinction. Key results. We identified 17 species from 7047 trap-days, with most of them showing an uneven distributional pattern throughout the park. We found that average species richness per site increased from five to seven species in 2017. Average local colonisation was estimated at 0.13 (s.e. 0.014), but the probability of local extinction was 0.17 (s.e. 0.028) and negatively influenced by distance from the park boundary. Detection probability was highest for medium-sized species. For species distribution, we found that black-fronted duiker, Cephalophus nigrifrons, and bushbuck, Tragelaphus script us, declined in distribution but remained widespread in our study area, while all other species showed an increase in distribution over the study period. Conclusions, Our approach allowed us to draw inferences on rare species, such as African golden cat, Caracal aurata, by estimating detection probability on the basis of shared covariate information with more common, widespread species. As such, we were able to estimate all occupancy parameters across the terrestrial mammal community.