Heat Stress During Arba'een Foot-Pilgrimage (World's Largest Gathering) Projected to Reach "Dangerous" Levels Due To Climate Change

Arba'een, a Muslim pilgrimage, is one of the largest annual mass gatherings in the world, with a date fixed according to the lunar calendar. Most pilgrims start their long walking journey from Basra/Najaf toward Karbala (about 70-500 km) and are significantly affected by outdoor weather conditions during this period. Here, based on simulations performed using carefully-selected climate models, we project that heat stress during the pilgrimage is likely to reach a "dangerous" level, defined according to the US National Weather Service criteria, by the end of this century. Moreover, a significant increase in consecutive occurrence of hot days and hot nights is expected within the coming decades, which may cause a high incidence of heat-related disorders as the human body may not recover from the daytime heat loads. Our study suggests that sound adaptation measures and stringent mitigation actions must be established to ensure a safe pilgrimage in the future.