Prognostic Imaging Biomarker Discovery in Survival Analysis for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Imaging biomarkers derived from medical images play an important role in diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy response assessment. Developing prognostic imaging biomarkers which can achieve reliable survival prediction is essential for prognostication across various diseases and imaging modalities. In this work, we propose a method for discovering patch-level imaging patterns which we then use to predict mortality risk and identify prognostic biomarkers. Specifically, a contrastive learning model is first trained on patches to learn patch representations, followed by a clustering method to group similar underlying imaging patterns. The entire medical image can be thus represented by a long sequence of patch representations and their cluster assignments. Then a memory-efficient clustering Vision Transformer is proposed to aggregate all the patches to predict mortality risk of patients and identify high-risk patterns. To demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of our model, we test the survival prediction performance of our method on two sets of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), a chronic, progressive, and life-threatening interstitial pneumonia of unknown etiology. Moreover, by comparing the high-risk imaging patterns extracted by our model with existing imaging patterns utilised in clinical practice, we can identify a novel biomarker that may help clinicians improve risk stratification of IPF patients.