Coupling future climate and land-use projections reveals where to strengthen the protection of Mediterranean Key Biodiversity Areas

Identifying sites that are both important for biodiversity and likely to be heavily affected by anthropogenic pressures in the future is crucial to settle priorities in the implementation of conservation measures, such as the designation of new protected areas. Although assessing the exposure of terrestrial Key Biodiversity Areas to global change would support such identification, it has never been performed to our knowledge. In addition, previous exposure assessments have been limited to few metrics of climate change and have not considered other global change components. Here, we assess the extent to which terrestrial (including inland water) Key Biodiversity Areas are exposed to future climate change and land-use modifications in 29 countries of the Mediterranean region, and identify countries where additional protection efforts are most needed. To this end, we calculated two local and two regional exposure metrics using projections of climate and land-use for late 21(st) century under four scenarios that were used in the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). These four exposure metrics were subsequently combined into an exposure index ranking sites from least to most exposed to climate and land-use changes. We highlight that the most exposed non-protected Key Biodiversity Areas are located in countries where the protection of this network is lowest (i.e., high number and percentage of non-protected sites). We also found that Key Biodiversity Areas were overall more exposed than the rest of the study zone and that the sites most in need of conservation actions were similar across future scenarios. Our study reinforces the pressing necessity to strengthen and extend conservation measures in Mediterranean Key Biodiversity Areas, especially in Middle-East and Maghreb countries whose Key Biodiversity Areas are both at risk to be strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures and insufficiently protected.