Non-overlap of suitable areas of agro-climatic resources and main planting areas is the main reason for potato drought disaster in Inner Mongolia, China

Potato bears the burden of eliminating hunger and supporting food security. Quantitative assessment of potato drought disaster risk can help the sustainable development of the potato industry and improve the regional disaster management capacity. This is also a major and urgent demand for food security. This study constructed a comprehensive drought condition index (CDCI) for different months of the potato growing season based on the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum (SPAC) system, quantitatively assessed potato drought disaster risk based on the four-factor theory of natural disaster risk formation, and discussed the historical and future planting environmental conditions in Inner Mongolia, China. The results showed that the non-overlap between suitable areas of agro-climatic resources and main planting areas is the main reason for the occurrence of potato drought disasters, and the “Extremely high risk area” and “High risk area” areas were concentrated in the current main planting areas, which was one of the problems encountered in the sustainable development of potato industry in Inner Mongolia. The analysis of future drought hazard changes indicates the need to pay attention not only to the possible persistence of drought hazard in Near term, but also to the possible waterlogging hazard in Mid-Long term. The different situations of land use/cover change (LUCC) in Inner Mongolia and various agricultural resources and environmental zones (AgriREZones) have confirmed the necessity of separating regions for agricultural drought risk analysis and management. The present study can be used as a reference for adjusting the layout of the potato industry and provide a basis for agricultural disaster prevention and reduction.