Markovian and rescaled range analysis-based probe into the pattern of rainfall over Eastern Peninsular India

The work presented here reports a detailed analysis of the rainfall over the Eastern Peninsula region of India (EPI) using Markov chain analysis. We have observed through normal distribution fitting that the overall pattern of annual rainfall is influenced by the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), and the post-monsoon season has fewer roles to play in the overall pattern of annual rainfall over the eastern peninsula of India. A Markovian analysis has shown that the rainfall time series, discretized to a binary time series, is serially independent. Finally, we have conducted a rescaled range analysis for all the time series under consideration. We have observed that in all three cases, the Hurst exponent is less than 0.5. We have concluded that strong long-term auto-correlation does not characterize the time series. Instead, there exists long-term switching between high and low values of rainfall.